The Kelly criterion and the 80/20 rule

After looking over my last post on the 80/20 rule and also having a discussion with a fellow trader, I’ve decided to write this short post in order to add one more angle to the 80/20 rule, and more specifically, how it relates to – to what I found to be – the best staking staking system and namely the Kelly criterion.

I will not go in full details on the Kelly system, but for those of you who are not familiar, here it is in a nutshell. Your stakes – or the risk you take – are in direct proportion to the probability of your bet or outcome, happening. So the higher the probability, the higher your risk should be and on the flip side, if your probability is low, your stake or the risk you take, should be adjusted accordingly. Or in other words, the higher the value or edge you have the higher the percentage of your total bankroll that you should commit, and if there is no value or edge then there is no bet.

Now, how does this fit in with the 80/20 rule ? [continue reading…]

The 80/20 rule and how it applies to sports trading

“How to make more money while trading less” could have been a suitable title for this post as well, because that is what the 80/20 rule is all about, doing or achieving more while working or committing less resources.

What is the 80/20 rule?

Before we go into how the 80/20 rule will help you make more money by trading less, let’s begin by talking a little bit about how this principle got born, what it is, where is it used and why it is so powerful. The 80/20 principle is also know as the law of vital few or the Pareto principle, named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923), who came across it while making research into different patterns of wealth distribution in Italy, discovering that the wealth distribution was very unequal, with 80% of the land being owned by only 20% of the population. This 80/20 pattern that he discovered, turned out to be a predictable pattern that could be charted out and expressed in a formula. He created a relationship between two distinct sets of data, in his case, the total amount of land or wealth and the total population.

[continue reading…]

Things to take away from the 2012 Australian Open

Before we move forward and enter the month of February, which is a more “relaxed” month from a tennis trading perspective, let’s take a look at some of the things that took place during this year’s edition of the Australian Open and what we can take away. [continue reading…]

First week of tennis trading in 2012

The first week of tennis trading in 2012 has come and gone. It’s been an interesting week due to a series of events, but probably the most highlighted fact was that we have had a series of injuries and retirements. Federer, Florian Mayer, Polona Hectog, Serena Williams, Steve Darcis, Tommy Haas, Bogomolov Jr., Lisicki, Penneta, Clijsters, Georges, Volandri and Kuznetsova have all withdrawn from matches in the first or early second week tournaments. Some reasons of retirement are more serious than others, but overall there have been 13 withdrawals at the time I am writing this post. The good news is that most of the mentioned players will be fit and ready to play at the Australian Open is less then a week’s time.

Now let’s take a look at what actually took place during the first week.
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Injuries before and during the Australian Open

The tennis season’s structure is quite amazing.It never ceases to amaze me how in December everything is pretty much dead, from a tennis traders perspective,  then as soon as the fireworks are over on new year’s eve, there are over 30 tennis matches available for trading. And it’s not like these are just any matches.These are high quality matches, with top players taking part.

Of course the Australian Open has a big part to play here, as all players are trying to gain as much form as possible before the first Grand Slam of the year. But the positioning of this event, so early in the calendar, has always been a problem for a large number of players, mainly due to the fact of not having enough time to prepare. And as a consequence, this has led players to be more prone to injuries; and similar to what we have seen in the past, this season we will have a number of players that will have the misfortune to get injured before or during the AO. [continue reading…]

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Marius Wender I'm Marius and I've been trading the sports markets on the betting exchanges (mainly betfair) since 2007. I concentrate most of my efforts on tennis and football, but I also spend some time on other markets like basketball, snooker and horse racing.I'm here to share my thoughts and experiences on sports trading.
Due to the lack of time I've stopped updating the blog back in 2012. Please use the contact form to get in touch.