The first week of tennis trading this season already brought up some incredible trading opportunities. Some of the most notable are the ones in Chennai were there have been two matches in which a player has come back from one set down and double break down in the second set.
The first match was Gasquet vs Phau; where Gasquet won the first set 6-1 and had a double break in the second, only to lose the match in the end. What is interesting is that you can see this pattern of play at Gasquet over and over again which makes him one of my favorite players to trade. When Gasquet is in the lead he has the tendency to be content to just put the ball back in play and starts to get in his defensive mode, where he plays further and further away from the baseline. In 2010 I remember Gasquet losing from a 2 sets to love lead in the Australian Open against Youzhny. In 2009 I remember a similar type of match, only this time against Fernando Gonzalez, and again at the Australian Open. Again in 2010 at the French Open, Gasquet had a 2-0 lead against Andy Murray but in the end lost the match.
The second match was the one between Falla and Nishikori, where Falla had a one set lead and double break in the second set. Again, if the look over Falla’s matches from last season we’ll see the match against Federer at Wimbledon, where Falla had a two sets to love lead, only to lose the match in end. This is where the pattern of play is identified (or at least that is where I identified it for Falla)
If you analyse a lot of tennis matches, you’ll see that most players have their patterns of play, which makes it easier to forecast the way a match might evolve (which is what you care about when you are trading). Having a comfortable lead, and going on to lose the match, is the most profitable pattern of play that you can identify for your tennis trading.
Image Credit: Gasquet