In my last post I talked about the trading opportunities I like to look out the most in the Grand Slam.
In the first 3 days of the 2011 Australian Open we have had all the mentioned opportunities present themselves.
Comebacks
On the first day there where four, two sets down comebacks, three of which were full comebacks in which the player that did comeback also went on to win the match. On day 2 we had three comebacks, two of which were full comebacks, and on day 3 we had two comebacks one of which was a full one. So, nine comebacks in total so far. The number is higher than usual and what makes things even better is the fact that most of these matches, where matches on the show courts, which means more exposure for the match and better liquidity for us traders.
Fatigue
No so many opportunities for trading a match on fatigue as these matches usually are on the end on the first week of a Grand Slam. But there were two so far, one was the Nalbandian vs Hewitt match and one less evident was the Robredo vs Fish match.
Injury
Only one match had an injury, and that was the Venus Williams vs Sandra Zahlavova where Venus picked up an injury during the last point of the first set tie break. Again this match presented some great trading opportunities.
Some quick tennis trading tips before the start of the 2011 Australian Open.
Comebacks from two sets down
2-0 comebacks are what I like to watch out for in the Grand Slams. They do happen and are some of the most profitable tennis trades you can make. They usually happen when you have two players of relatively equal value and one happens to take a 2 sets lead without being overly dominant in the match. As an example, take the Ferrer vs Baghdatis match from last year’s Australian Open where Ferrer took a 2 sets lead after two tightly contested sets. There wasn’t much is those two first sets, I’d go as far as to say Baghdatis played better and the statistics indicated that as well, only Ferrer played the important points better. In the end Baghdatis did make a comeback and won the match.
Fatigue
Fatigue can be an important factor in a Grand Slams. I’ll make a reference again to the match between Ferrer and Baghdatis. Although Baghdatis did go on to win it, it was an exhausting match which can lead to his fitness level to be decreased in the following matches. Baghdatis’s next match was against Hewitt and after losing the first set 6-0 and being 4-2 down in the second he was forced to retire. Another perfect example is the match between De Bakker and Isner at the 2010 Wimbledon when Isner had to play De Bakker after that incredible 10 match against Mahut. I remember that De Bakker was available at odds as high as evens. De Bakker went on to win the match in straight sets.
Injury
Injuries can take place on the tennis court quite often. I was caught off guard in many matches when a player suddenly felt ill or called the trainer. The only reason I mention injuries here is because, out of all the tournaments in the season, the Australian Open is where you are likely to see the most withdrawal due to injury of some sort. This is mainly due to the fact that this Grand Slam is positioned so early in the calendar and most players come with very few official matches played. Another reason is the extreme weather you can get in Melbourne.
To end this post I’d like to share my views on the mens tournament where I see Djokovic as value (if you like trading the tournament winner market), and I look forward to seeing Nadal’s first matches as I don’t see him the favorite the odds would suggest. More on this as the tournament progresses.
I'm Marius and I've been trading the sports markets on the betting exchanges (mainly betfair) since 2007. I concentrate most of my efforts on tennis and football, but I also spend some time on other markets like basketball, snooker and horse racing.I'm here to share my thoughts and experiences on sports trading.
